With the growing complexity of global politics, Stephen Fisher, global head of government and public affairs at Deutsche Bank, attempted to bring some clarity in his session entitled ‘Shifting Sands: Navigating the New Geopolitical Landscape in 2024’, during the International Securities Lending Association (ISLA) conference. As he put it, his aim was to “cut through the news and make sense of the world around us”. No easy task.
Elections, naturally, took centre stage for much of the discussion. Fisher noted that by the end of the year some 65 countries will have held elections, and with eight out of 10 of the world’s most populous countries included in that number, around half of the global population is set to have taken part in some form of election by the end of 2024.
Of all these, the US presidential election in November is not only dominating headlines, but to Fisher’s mind, will also be the most consequential.
Starting in Europe however, French President Emmanuel Macron plays centre stage, both in his position as leader of one of the bloc’s stronger and most influential members, and after he called a snap election recently — a move which some, including former President Nicolas Sarkozy, believe could cause problems.
Much of Europe has already seen a political shift to the right, where centrist, moderate incumbents have been ousted by more populist parties. Fisher said, however, that this is not resulting in a new wave of Brexit-style departures from member states, but rather the political right is seeking to influence — or perhaps even undermine — Brussels from within.
That said, Fisher highlighted the fact that these news-generating headlines of the more extreme parties have been taking attention away from the European Commission, where the centre still holds. As Fisher noted: “Europe, after all of this, carries on pretty much as before.”
Considering the relationship between the EU and US, Fisher believes there is likely to be protectionism coming no matter who is in the White House. While President Biden will naturally focus domestically, particularly in the election, a second term from President Trump, given his previous inclinations, Fisher believes will potentially see a similar US-first approach.
An exception, Fisher highlighted, is the potential for a Trump White House to foster unilateral agreements with member states — such as it previously did with France — in an effort to circumvent the EU.
Fisher also touched on another topic in USEU relations that may become prominent under a Trump presidency — the increased requirement for defence spending as the US urges more military independence from the EU, to shoulder the costs.
Looking at the US-China relationship, Fisher suggested both Biden and Trump see the Asian giant as a threat, but perhaps differ in priorities when it comes to handling the situation. The approach to China also looks likely to differ depending on the election results, according to Fisher. He suggests that Biden will look to the EU and other nations to form a strategy. Trump, his past history may suggest, seems likely to act unilaterally.
In such a turbulent environment, it is not perhaps unreasonable to ask the question: how did it come to this?
Fisher believes “Pessimism has crowded out the optimism of the post cold war era”, once again noting the global trend of voting out incumbents and replacing them with more anti-globalist, anticentrist parties. “People are angry and want change.”
The issue raised a further question from the audience — are people actually becoming more right wing or just revolting against incumbents?
Fisher believes that right wing views have certainly become normalised over the past 10 years. By their nature, he suggested, they are able to give simple answers to complex questions. Simple answers resonate.
Image: SFT 